Advanced Ball Handling
A single move (crossover, between-the-legs, hesitation) creates a momentary advantage but rarely converts that advantage into a scoring opportunity.
Individual Skills
Expected Value and Points Per Possession
Expected value (EV) quantifies the average point output of a shot type given its likelihood of conversion and point value.
Direct answer
What is Expected Value and Points Per Possession?
Expected value (EV) quantifies the average point output of a shot type given its likelihood of conversion and point value.
Quick facts
| Category | Individual Skills |
|---|---|
| Source volume | Basketball Knowledge Vault/vol2_intermediate_building_your_game.md |
What it is
- Expected value (EV) quantifies the average point output of a shot type given its likelihood of conversion and point value.
How it works
- A three-pointer with a 35% shot probability has EV = 3 × 0.35 = 1.05 points per possession.
- A two-pointer with a 50% shot probability has EV = 2 × 0.50 = 1.00 points per possession.
- These are nearly equivalent, explaining why three-point shooting has become critical.
- However, context matters: a 30% three-pointer (EV = 0.90) is worse than a 48% two-pointer (EV = 0.96), so situation-dependent shot selection is required.
- The highest-EV shot in the modern NBA for most teams is the wide-open corner three (36-38% average, EV ≈ 1.08-1.14); the next-highest is the at-rim shot (64-66% average, EV ≈ 1.28-1.32).
Bilingual terms
| English | Expected Value and Points Per Possession |
|---|---|
| Simplified Chinese | 期望值与每回合得分 |
| Traditional Chinese | 每回合預期價值與得分 |
Learn before and after
These graph neighbors help place Expected Value and Points Per Possession in the larger basketball map.
Related concepts
Points per Possession by Scheme
Empirically, different schemes allow different PPP rates
Second-Chance Points and Value
Second-chance points are points scored on possessions after an offensive rebound.
The Three High-Value Shot Zones
Modern offensive analytics have identified three zones that generate disproportionately high expected value: the restricted area (at-rim), the corner three-pointer, and the above-the-break three-pointer.
Coming Off Screen Tight and Hip-to-Hip Contact
The moment the ball handler uses the screen is critical.
Pick-and-Roll Basics (Ball Handler)
The effectiveness of a pick-and-roll is determined partly by initial setup: how well the ball handler has positioned the defender before using the screen.
Reading Defender Hips and Feet
Defenders' intentions are communicated through hip and foot position before they move.